Snake Eyes Condwen

Snake Eyes Condwen
Biography and appearance
Game	Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire
Race	Wood elf
Gender	Male
Culture	Príncipi sen Patrena
Background	Raider
Faction	Príncipi sen Patrena
Statistics
Class	Rogue
Level	5
Attributes	Health: 76 Mig 12 Con 9 Dex 10 Per 17 Int 14 Res 13
Accuracy	56
Penetration	7
Defenses	Def: 35 Fort: 29 Ref: 56 Will: 46
DR	3
Elemental DR	Slash: 3 Pierce: 3 Crush: 3 Shock: 3 Freeze: 3 Burn: 3 Corrode: 3
Abilities	Wily Step, Sneak Attack, Defensive Roll, Escape, Blinding Strike, Dirty Fighting, Strike the Bell
Gameplay
Location	Fort Deadlight
Drops	Peculiar Dice
Equipment
Body	Vailian Frock Coat
Weapon	Dagger
Technical
Internal Name	NPC_FD_Pirate_Cheater
GUID	60560fd3-ec1f-4758-acea-680c1691126c

Snake Eyes Condwen is a character in Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire.

Background

The pirate looks you over, eying the make of you. A sly smile curls at his mouth as he tosses a pair of dice to rattle over the cobblestone ground.

Condwen is the local gambler, offering a rigged game of dice to the gullible pirates of the Fort.

Interactions

	This character is involved in quests.	Blow the Man Down
	This character has other interactions.	He offers dice games. With Perception 13, you can notice he doesn't even need to look at the dice to call out their numbers. You can also tell that he pats his pocket nervously, with Sleight of Hand 3, Insight 3, or with specific background 14. He won't let you continue playing if you've won more than 5 times.

Quests

• Blow the Man Down: If you pickpocket the Peculiar Dice from Snake Eyes Condwen, an extra dialogue option opens to discuss the rigged dice, or Unlucky Ancret's debt, as well as with Ancret herself. You can also continue playing, which removes the skewed outcomes, and after 3 wins he'll realise that he no longer has his rigged dice and you can confront him.

Note that you must inspect the dice in your inventory first (by clicking "Inspect the dice"), and then the second set that appears by opening the item inspect window - simply pickpocketing the dice does nothing. Either way, Snake Eyes will be chased off, leaving the entrance to the Eastern Ramparts open.

Dice game

The game he plays is high/low: You bet on the sum of two six-sided die rolls being higher than, lower than, or exactly 7. 100 per roll, payout is 2x for high/low and 4x for seven. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the game's rigged.

In a fair game (not in real-life), rolling high or low would be a 5-in-11 chance of winning (~45.4%), while rolling 7 would be a 1-in-11 chance (~9%).

However with his rigged dice, the outcome you bet on has reduced odds. Betting on, and then successfully rolling high or low is reduced to a 5-in-14 chance (35.71%), with the opposite outcome having a 8-in-14 (57.1%) chance, while rolling 7 is unchanged.

• The possible outcomes are: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
• Betting low skews the results high, adding the additional outcomes: 10, 11, 12
• Betting high skews the results low, adding the additional outcomes: 2, 3, 4

You can pickpocket the rigged dice from him (see above), which prevents the additional outcomes from occurring.

State	Outcome	Probability
With rigged dice	Low (when betting low) High (when betting high)	5/14 (35.7%)
	Low (when betting high) High (when betting low)	8/14 (57.1%)
	Seven	1/11 (9%)
Without rigged dice	Low/high	5/11 (45.4%)
	Seven	1/11 (9%)

The game takes some liberties with the outcomes of rolling a pair of dice, only considering the possibility of each outcome as 1 permutation. In real life, different combinations of rolls can yield the same outcome, with 36 possible permutations. The probability of a pair of dice resulting in a sum of high or low (exclusively) is 15-in-36 (41.67%), while rolling a 7 is 6-in-36 (16.66%).